With just 24 hours to the hard fork that will split the Bitcoin Cash chain into two or three independent and possibly competing chains, we shall be keeping an eye on Bitcoin Cash price today not just to understand the opportunities and prospects inherent in the fork, but to analyze its effect on the coin market.
50 Percent Correction in 2 Weeks
A long term bottom formation is expected from BCH which has seen a lot of activities in the past weeks. The high volume movement has since seen correction as high as 50 percent from the low 2 weeks ago. At a point, BCH traded at $632 according to data from Coinmarketcap.
At the center of the recent Bitcoin Cash market activity are competing chains of Bitcoin Cash ABC and Bitcoin Cash SV, two versions their fork is expected on November 15.
The former is the original software underlying the digital currency while the latter is backed by developers and influencers who are not in agreement with the latest software update proposed by the network.
Irreconcilable Differences and Unpreventable Fork
The fork is coming amidst internal rumbling in the Bitcoin Cash ecosystem which was downplayed by many stakeholders for months. The lead developer for Bitcoin Cash, Amaury Sechet had earlier stated that things were going to quiet down implying that a fork was unlikely.
According to Sechet,
“I think there may be many, many forks in the future, but 99 percent of them will become worthless eventually,”
“The Bitcoin communities had many arguments before about forks, but not many people really give anything because everyone just kept fighting with each other.”
It is now apparent that things didn’t quite pan out contrary to the optimism expressed. With the upcoming fork in the news, it is early to assess any of the forks.
Is There A Favorite Fork?
What is obvious is that many of the influencers in the community are backing the Bitcoin Cash ABC. It is not certain if their support for Bitcoin Cash ABC has ideaological or viability.
Big players in the industry such as Coinbase, Binance and BitPay have already thrown their weight behind the Bitcoin ABC chain.
A marginally rendered BitPay blog post on the issue stated,
“BitPay’s system uses the primary software implementation of Bitcoin Cash called Bitcoin ABC. Bitcoin ABC has scheduled a Bitcoin Cash protocol change via hard fork on November 15th. […] BitPay has not made any plans to migrate from the Bitcoin ABC implementation of Bitcoin Cash to a different implementation.”
Another advantage Bitcoin Cash ABC team has most mining pool of the network backing it. This seems to make the ABC the favorite chain.
Test Trading for Upcoming Coins
A pre-fork trading of the two forks at the exchnage Poloniex even shows that most traders favored BCH ABC. BCH ABC traded above $400 while BCH SV just above $100.
Yet analysts are not convinced that having some pools support a chain over the other would be a determinant of the final outcome in terms of performance of the coin.
Aside Poloniex, HitBtc is another crypto exchange conducting pre-fork trading for the two coins. Report from the exchanges show that BCH SV is the lowest valued presently, sometimes trading 80 percent lower than Bitcoin Cash while BCH ABC has traded at more than 50 percent, the value of Bitcoin Cash.
Founder Reputation An Albatross for BCH SV
The main disdain shown Bitcoin Cash SV may not be unconnected to the fact that one of the main leader behind the network is Craig Wright who is known to have made claims in the past that he is Nakamoto Satoshi, the Bitcoin inventor.
Many prominent leaders in the crypto community including Buterin, the Ethereum founder would not back whatever Wright is involved with even if it is a good project.
However, Wright is not taking the criticisms lying down. He believes that the Bitcoin Cash Satosh Vision (SV) which he is spearheading is actually going to restore the original vision of Satoshi Nakamoto, the Bitcoin inventor.
He has the backing of Jimmy Nguyen of Nchain who said,
“Answering the call of miners, nChain is happy to provide technical capabilities needed to support Bitcoin SV.”
Nguyen highlighted the features of BCH SV that he believes would restore the original vision of Nakamoto Satoshi,
“Once the Bitcoin protocol is fully restored and maintained, global businesses and developers can reliably build robust applications, projects and ventures upon it – just as they reliably build upon the long-stable Internet protocols.”
BCH SV, Restoring The Satoshi Vision
BCH SV is planning implementation of 128 MB block size,
“The future of Bitcoin is big blocks, big business, and big growth. Bitcoin SV is an important step toward that big future by advancing the professionalization of Bitcoin.”
In the last 24 hours before the fork, events have taken some dramatic turns with data showing that majority of miners are in support of BCH SV. Now this is remarkable because miners are in control of networks.
Even with contrasting information for and against each of the upcoming networks, neither having more nodes in support of or against a network will determine the success of the coin. Most nodes will migrate to the network they consider more profitable.
One mining pool even indicated that it will be supporting the two forks. In a tweet, F2Pool wrote that it will back BCH ABC and BCH SV.
Nodes and Pools May Not Matter
At a point today, the price of BCH SV surged above BCH ABC. This clearly shows that the various metrics that seem in favor of BCH ABC may not really make it the dominant coin of Bitcoin Cash.
These fundamental issues have continued to affect the price of Bitcoin Cash which has seen spike in price and trading volume over the past weeks. The battle for dominance between the two forks though has not had marked effects on Bitcoin Cash price today.
The coin is currently trading at $482. At this price, BCH is down 9.28 percent in the past 24 hours reflecting increasing caution of the market as the fork approaches.
More Short Positions Than Long On BCH
What is apparent is that many traders are giving up positions as indicated by the increased sell pressure. This is mainly due to the uncertainties associated with forks in terms of technicalities and economics.
Presently, there is no certainty regarding the number of forks that the Bitcoin Cash network will end up with.
Data feed from Bitfinex shows that BCH shorts have nearly doubled long positions. At $482, the coin may be primed for further downward movement before the fork.
Exchange Trading Three Coins from One Network
At present, the coin market is trading the parent BCH, the two exchanges Poloniex and HitBtc are trading futures of BCH ABC and BCH SV.
Until the outcome becomes clearer, investors are taking a catious approach despite weeks of frenzy acquiring the coin which has seen the value of BCH spike.
Nevertheless, there isn’t likely to be a problem with the fork from a technical point of view. However, holders would do well to take a cue from the Bitpay advisory about transaction around the time of the actual fork.
According to the statement,
“During the fork, your funds held in your wallet will be safe, and you won’t be at risk of losing funds. However, we strongly recommend that you stop sending or receiving transactions from your Bitcoin Cash wallets at 10 AM EST (about two hours before the fork).”
The release continued,
“During a hard fork , there is an increased risk that outgoing or incoming transactions can be lost or double-spent.”
A Trading View Analysis stated,
” For the big inverse H&S on the left, we need to stay above the 500. Otherwise we will drop towards that blue circled line again. On the short term there is a chance for another smaller inverse H&S , but needs to stay above the 530ish. But do know, this type of H&S at this position is unreliable; they tend to fail many times.”
One take-away from the upcoming fork is that the market is generally reacting negatively to it, at least as the fork gets imminent. Bitcoin and most altcoins are in red reflecting market sentiments. Bitcoin is currently trading at $6,261 losing 1.59 percent in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin Cash daily chart shows a pull-back which reflects the uncertainty in the market due to the BCH-ABC and BCH-SV imminent fork. It is obvious that miners, investors, traders and speculators are taking sides.
In the past 12 hours BCH broke the downward channel creating hope that the coin may still find bullish momentum after the fork. Its main challenge will be from the general coin market which has seen a weakened Bitcoin (BTC). Tether has also lost quite some of its stabilizing factor creating a weakening effect on the market.
For the big inverse H&S to play out, the next upward move for Bitcoin Cash must be strong and accompanied with large volume as seen in the past weeks.
Photo credit: Trading View and Coinmarketcap