Quantitative Crypto Perspective (QCP), a cryptocurrency research firm, believes that the latest Bitcoin rally was driven more by macro forces than by spot ETF developments. QCP specifically points to the smaller-than-expected Treasury supply estimate yesterday and the dovish FOMC minutes, which sent bond yields tumbling and risk assets soaring.
QCP believes that it will take the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF to start the next exponential leg higher in Bitcoin’s price. QCP also believes that only a major “rug pull” from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler could take Bitcoin back below $32,000 at this stage.
Macro economic forces and spot ETF
Macro forces are economic and geopolitical factors that can have a significant impact on the stock market and other asset markets. Examples of macro forces include interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and war.
A spot Bitcoin ETF is an exchange-traded fund that would track the price of Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs would allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to purchase and store the cryptocurrency directly.
A maturing market
QCP’s analysis is significant because it suggests that the Bitcoin market is becoming more mature. In the past, Bitcoin prices have been driven primarily by retail investors and speculative trading. However, QCP’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin prices are now being driven by macro forces and institutional investors.
If QCP’s analysis is correct, it could lead to a sustained bull market in Bitcoin. The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would likely lead to significant inflows of capital into the Bitcoin market. This could drive Bitcoin prices to new all-time highs.
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could lead to a sustained bull market in Bitcoin.